|
|
This is only a preview of the paper
Click here to register and get the full text.
Existing members click here to login
|
|
|
PAKISTAN: INTERNAL DYNAMICS
Abstract
Mumbai based think-tank Strategic Foresight Group recently published a report –Shifting Sands: Instability in Undefined Asia, that analyses the internal dynamics in — Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia — together termed as Undefined Asia. This article is drawn from the chapter on Pakistan, which has been analysed using the 4 G Framework of Growth, Governance, God and Geopolitics.
From its tumultuous relationship with its neighbours to growing dissent amongst provinces, from its geostrategic importance to its support to non-state actors, from its unique blend of social modernism and religious orthodoxy to its black economy and Jihadi culture — Pakistan’s internal dynamics, though mazy, are worth reviewing for its potentiality to become a major source of concern for the global community.
Introduction
Pakistan can best be described as a state with split personality. There is a section of the society, including one in the all-powerful army, who would like Pakistan to emerge as a modern and progressive state, integrated in the world economy. But there is one more section, also including a faction of the army that envisages Pakistan as an orthodox theocracy. The current crisis in Pakistan epitomises serious competition between the forces of social and economic modernism and religious orthodoxy. General Pervez Musharraf, President of Pakistan, has accentuated the conflict with his dual approach. ...
Pakistan has mainly been ruled by the army albeit with a few democratic interludes. ...
Pakistan’s military rulers have been successful in monopolising the domestic power structure and resources. But they have miserably failed in protecting Pakistan’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and vital strategic assets. General Ayub Khan and General Yahya Khan together lost East Pakistan. ... Moreover, Afghans have refused to accept Pakistan’s definition of the bilateral border on the Durand Line. ... Many Afghan leaders arrogate the Pashtun-speaking territory of Pakistan to Afghanistan, which constitutes more than one-third of the country’s territory. Within the country, separatist agitation in Sindh and the provincial government of Muttahida Majlis Amal (MMA) in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) indicate that they have, in their respective ways, a different vision of Pakistan than the Punjabi elite does. Pakistan’s unity is under strain as the split in its personality widens by the day.
Growth
Pakistan’s economy has been sliding since the early 1990s. ... Some home truths about Pakistan’s domestic economy that will primarily determine the countrys future economic growth, include:
· Industrial base
Although Pakistan has developed a modest industrial base in steel, textiles, sugar, cement, leather goods, chemicals, plastics and a few other items, its industries are predominantly based on agriculture. ...
· Social sector development
Majority of Pakistan’s population lives in penury. ...
· Informal economy
Despite its poor performance, Pakistan’s economy is not exactly sinking. ...
As per estimates of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, assets worth more than $28 billion are stashed away in the underground or black economy. According to the reported calculations of the World Bank, in 2001, Pakistan’s black economy was around 70 per cent of GDP. ... As a consequence, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves improved to almost $5 billion in January 2002 and crossed $9 billion in January 2003, and the Rupee strengthened from Rs. ... Pakistan’s dependence on the black economy for economic survival reflects a distorted value system. ... Pakistan is thus caught up in a vicious cycle — its economic weaknesses promote an underground sector and the latter impinges upon economic growth.
Governance
Pakistan is always ruled by the army, either indirectly or directly. ... This also included 30 senior retired officers of the army posted at Pakistan’s diplomatic missions abroad. ...
God
The jihadi culture is a distinguishing characteristic of Pakistan. The genesis of jihad can be traced back to the late 1970s and 1980s — the time of General Zia-ul-Haq’s Islamisation policies started to gain legitimacy; the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the subsequent Afghan mujahideen’s war against the former; the civil war in Afghanistan; Pakistan’s involvement, both, in the war against the Soviet troops and the Afghan civil war; and the Iranian revolution of 1979. All this led to a massive influx of aid into Pakistan for the dual purpose of combating the rise of communalism and the Shi’aite Islamic revolution. ... There are 40,000-50,000 madrassas believed to be operating in Pakistan today, training an estimated 1-2 million students.
Change in Strategy
Pakistan has been forced to join the war on terror, in the aftermath of the 9/11 episode. Pakistan’s strategy has been to pretend to curb terrorism and religious extremism at the cosmetic level, but to support and cultivate it at the operational level. ... However, only 215,000 weapons had been surrendered up to October 2002, which is miniscule compared with the 18 million illicit arms floating around in Pakistan. ...
§ Ban on terrorist organisations: On January 12, 2002, General Musharraf announced a ban on five extremist organisations — Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) and Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammad (TNSM).
Approximate Word count = 4160
Approximate Pages = 16.6
(250 words per page double spaced)
|
|
|
|
|
|