Bayesianism vs. Giere
... supports the theory of a huge meteorite having the ability to cause a cataclysmic event like the one that supposedly caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. The Bayesian would then apply a probability to the reliability of this data. I will apply a probability of .75 to this data because I have no verification for it, or against it, but in my opinion it appears reliable. Then the probabilities found would be applied to Bayes theorem to find the posterior probability. Bayes theorem for the given probabilities I assed would go as follows: posterior probability or (.5/.75)= ((.75/.5)*(.5))/.75. This equation gives the probability or posterior probability of the theory being true. The posterior probability then becomes the new prior probability. The Giere six-step program for assessing the theoretical hypothesis of the dinosaur’s extinction caused by a massive meteorite slamming into the earth would go as follows: Step 1. The aspect of the real world being investigated is the cause of the extinction of the dinosouse by meteorite. Step 2. The model is the theory of a meteorite colliding with the earth. The collision of the massive meteorite caused a dust cloud that blocked out the sun causing the massive extinction of plant life and dinosaurs. Step 3. The data comes from studies done on the fracture patterns in quarts. The fractured quarts that indicates an impact was also found in the same regions where large amounts of iridium were found which is an element that is generally found in meteorites. Step 4. The model predicted that an extraterrestrial body colliding with the earth caused debris to be thrown up and block out the sun. According to the model the impact would have to release the energy of six billion atomic bombs to cause such a global catastrophe. Step 5. The data does agree with the prediction in that “shocked quarts” and iridium were found in clay deposits from the time period of the dinosaur’s extinction. The ability of a meteorite colliding with earth and causing debris to block out the sun is supported by any data given in the article. Step 6. The prediction agrees with the data because the data does show evidence of meteorites having hit the earth around the time of the extinction of the dinosaurs. This could also show that the ozone may have broke down around this time period allowing meteorites to fall threw the earths atmosphere without burning up as well as causing severe weather conditions that could have killed off the dinosaurs. I believe the facts reported in the essay do not indicate direct evidence for the extinction of the dinosaurs due to a meteorite. The data given in this essay do support the fact that meteorites or other extraterrestrial bodies did collide with ea...