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Calculated change Critically evaluate the use of hard systems thinking and quantifiable forecasting techniques in the

Humans are surrounded by systems. One of the fundamental elements of human education is the application and understanding of mathematical number systems. Human bodies are compiled of various systems such as the respiratory system and the circulatory system. Humans interact with people in groups which form social, political and economic systems. Modern organisations would collapse without information systems.
Initially these varied systems appear to have little in common. ... Systems’ thinking is the attempt to study such generic features of all systems. Although it is evident that systems’ thinking is applied to most aspects of human life, whether humans operate or can be analysed through “hard” or “soft” systems is a controversial issue. This essay critically evaluates the relevancy of using “hard” systems methodologies and quantifiable forecasting techniques within the social sciences and the sports industry. For example, can mathematical equations be calculated and applied to forecast how successful a future sporting event will be?


The approach of systems thinking is fundamentally different from that of traditional forms of analysis. ... However, systems thinking focuses on how the object or action being studied interacts with the other constituents of the system — a set of elements that interact to produce behaviour — of which it is a part. This means that instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied, systems thinking works by expanding its view to take into account larger and larger numbers of interactions as an issue (www. ... This notion is supported by the quote;
“Systems thinking is, more than anything else, a mindset for understanding how things work. ... Systems’ thinking embodies a world-view. A world-view which implies that the foundation for understanding lies in interpreting interrelationships within systems. Interrelationships which are responsible for the manner in which systems operate. ... systems-thinking. ... htm)
Systems’ thinking was traditional based round ‘hard’ (complex mathematical equations) approaches. Conversely, more recently there has “been a divide between the so-called ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ approaches” (Lane & Oliver (1998) sited in Rees (1999, P. ... And according to IRCA (2000) “ we can say that the “soft” systems approach is a learning process designed to determine what needs to be done in an ill-defined problem situation, and “hard” systems approaches are used to determine how to make improvements to a better-defined problem” (www. ... This quote suggests that both hard and soft systems are both applicable but in different situations. Figure 1 shows how ‘hard systems’ are much more structured and technical than ‘soft systems’ and supports the concepts forwarded by Lane & Oliver and the ICRA respectively.

Figure 1 (Systems thinking strategies, taken from Richardson (1998)
The first issue that arises when considering applying systems thinking to the sports industry is can sport and its attributes, such as creativity and innovation really be the product of a ‘hard’ system? Hard systems thinking is often identified as complex mathematical or scientific reasoning to solve a problem. This concept is supported by the quote:
“Hard systems thinking is a means of solving problems in a systematic way, applying a clear methodology to identify problems and to rectify them through scientific modelling, rational testing, implementation and evaluation processes”     
Anon (2003) www. ... uk)
This means that hard systems thinking can be relevant to certain areas of the sports industry. For example, if a running club was in financial difficulties, hard systems thinking could be used to establish the root cause of the difficulties. Hard systems thinking is often associated with other systems components such as; systems engineering, systems analysis, and operational research.

Systems engineering emerged as a concept during the 1940s and 1950s. The primary focus of systems engineering was on the production of complex physical objects such as large-scale integrated manufacturing plants or the design of industrial plant such chemical plants.


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