Discussion Paper Surprise Surprise Surprise A Complexity Science View of the Unexpected
... While some surprises can be avoided as a result of the above mentioned measures, the authors argue that surprise is inherent in complex systems and thus cannot be avoided entirely. ... Since we have yet to develop a foundation for this class on which to base this discussion, I will attempt to relate the topics addressed in the reading to material covered in other classes and personal life experiences. Surprises in the Traditional View The article begins by defining the traditional view of surprise as a threat that should be avoided. ... Organizations with a traditional view of surprise may present the following characteristics: • Focus on returning to the “previous state” rather than expanding beyond defined boundaries • Focus on each individual doing his/her job so that mistakes will be avoided We have all been exposed to this kind of organizational tactic…just do your job and everything will be fine. ... • Regulated environment based on rules / laws that attempt to “control / eliminate” surprise situations • Defensive mindset resulting in questions like “How can we fix this? ... In these situations, management reverted to crisis mode and worked hard to return the organization to its pre-surprise state. Surprises in the CAS view Through the lens of complexity science, surprise is viewed as inevitable and should be acknowledged as a possible opportunity for creativity, learning and growth. This approach lends flexibility to the organization and limits the wasting of resources on surprise prevention. An organization that adheres to this view of surprise may present the following characteristics: • Fluid, interactive structure that is able to adapt to the ever-changing environment • Increased focus on a deeper qualitative understanding of phenomenon and a decreased focus on individual parts and future predictions • “Order…created through the patterns of interconnections, not complicated controls and rules” • Management responds positively to surprise thus encouraging learning and creativity, and thus preventing the negative emotions associated with “failure” and unpredictability Sources of Surprises According to the authors there are five sources of inherent uncertainty and surprise that result from the nonlinearity of complex adaptive systems.